Second summit scheduled
+1 ptsA second UK–EU summit is scheduled for 20 November 2026, providing a near-term decision point.
UK Government · 2026-10-12 ↗← All forecasts
Britain’s European Future
A substantial new UK–EU agreement
A new, implemented institutional or economic agreement materially deepens UK–EU cooperation beyond the Trade and Cooperation Agreement baseline.
Selected horizon
80%
Very likely
Within 1 year
35%
Deadline 13 Oct 2027
Within 5 years
70%
Deadline 13 Oct 2031
Within 10 years
80%
Deadline 13 Oct 2036
Current assessment
Why 80%?
The long horizon and existing institutional programme make further integration strongly plausible, without implying EU membership.
Existing work programme
+2 ptsThe strategic partnership created active workstreams in security, trade, energy and mobility.
Council of the EU · 2025-05-19 ↗Community forecast
What is your estimate?
This is a judgement about whether the defined outcome will happen by the deadline—not a statement of political preference.
Model forecast
80%
Community median
—
No shared submissions yet
0% impossible100% certain
One forecast per browser and outcome. You can change it.
Stored assessments
Forecast history
This is the first stored assessment. Breenter will draw a historical line only after later snapshots exist; no backfilled history is invented.
View snapshot data
| Date | Estimate | Method |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 80% | Structured baseline v1 |
Relevant developments
Prime Minister to attend second UK–EU summit in Brussels
A scheduled leaders’ meeting creates a near-term opportunity for agreements already in negotiation. It does not signal an accession process or guarantee a substantive outcome.
Read analysis →UK and EU establish a new strategic partnership
The programme creates practical pathways for closer cooperation while remaining inside the post-Brexit framework and stopping short of membership.
Read analysis →