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Forecasting dashboard

Britain’s European Future

Five separate outcomes, three time horizons and one transparent method. These are structured estimates—not predictions of what political actors will decide.

EU membership

The UK becomes an EU member state again after completing an Article 49 accession process and all required UK and EU ratification steps.

Single market

The UK enters an arrangement providing broad participation in the EU single market across goods and services, with binding common rules and oversight.

Customs union

The UK and EU implement a comprehensive customs union covering substantially all goods and a shared external tariff framework.

Movement

UK and EU citizens regain broad reciprocal rights to move, reside and take employment, materially beyond limited youth or sectoral mobility schemes.

Closer integration

A new, implemented institutional or economic agreement materially deepens UK–EU cooperation beyond the Trade and Cooperation Agreement baseline.

Model estimates are rounded to the nearest five points and kept separate from polling and community forecasts.

Not mutually exclusive

Several outcomes could occur together. Percentages should not be added to 100%.

Rounded estimates

Outputs are rounded to five-point increments to avoid implying false precision.

Community kept separate

Visitor forecasts are shown alongside, but never alter, the structured estimate.