Trade cooperation
+3 ptsThe strategic partnership increased the scope for negotiations on barriers to goods trade.
Council of the EU · 2025-05-19 ↗← All forecasts
Britain’s European Future
A comprehensive UK–EU customs union
The UK and EU implement a comprehensive customs union covering substantially all goods and a shared external tariff framework.
Selected horizon
30%
Unlikely
Within 1 year
5%
Deadline 13 Oct 2027
Within 5 years
30%
Deadline 13 Oct 2031
Within 10 years
45%
Deadline 13 Oct 2036
Current assessment
Why 30%?
Reducing goods frictions could raise the issue, but the implications for trade policy would make agreement contentious.
Independent trade policy
-3 ptsA comprehensive customs union would constrain independent tariff policy and therefore requires a major UK policy change.
UK Government · 2026-10-13 ↗Community forecast
What is your estimate?
This is a judgement about whether the defined outcome will happen by the deadline—not a statement of political preference.
Model forecast
30%
Community median
—
No shared submissions yet
0% impossible100% certain
One forecast per browser and outcome. You can change it.
Stored assessments
Forecast history
This is the first stored assessment. Breenter will draw a historical line only after later snapshots exist; no backfilled history is invented.
View snapshot data
| Date | Estimate | Method |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 30% | Structured baseline v1 |
Relevant developments
Prime Minister to attend second UK–EU summit in Brussels
A scheduled leaders’ meeting creates a near-term opportunity for agreements already in negotiation. It does not signal an accession process or guarantee a substantive outcome.
Read analysis →UK and EU establish a new strategic partnership
The programme creates practical pathways for closer cooperation while remaining inside the post-Brexit framework and stopping short of membership.
Read analysis →