People-to-people agenda
+2 ptsThe strategic partnership explicitly includes work on mobility and people-to-people links.
Council of the EU · 2025-05-19 ↗← All forecasts
Britain’s European Future
Broad reciprocal rights to live and work
UK and EU citizens regain broad reciprocal rights to move, reside and take employment, materially beyond limited youth or sectoral mobility schemes.
Selected horizon
5%
Remote
Within 1 year
5%
Deadline 13 Oct 2027
Within 5 years
35%
Deadline 13 Oct 2031
Within 10 years
55%
Deadline 13 Oct 2036
Current assessment
Why 5%?
Targeted mobility cooperation may advance, but broad reciprocal residence and work rights are not currently being negotiated.
Scope gap
-2 ptsLimited mobility measures are materially narrower than broad rights to live and work.
European Commission · 2026-10-13 ↗Community forecast
What is your estimate?
This is a judgement about whether the defined outcome will happen by the deadline—not a statement of political preference.
Model forecast
5%
Community median
—
No shared submissions yet
0% impossible100% certain
One forecast per browser and outcome. You can change it.
Stored assessments
Forecast history
This is the first stored assessment. Breenter will draw a historical line only after later snapshots exist; no backfilled history is invented.
View snapshot data
| Date | Estimate | Method |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 5% | Structured baseline v1 |
Relevant developments
Prime Minister to attend second UK–EU summit in Brussels
A scheduled leaders’ meeting creates a near-term opportunity for agreements already in negotiation. It does not signal an accession process or guarantee a substantive outcome.
Read analysis →UK and EU establish a new strategic partnership
The programme creates practical pathways for closer cooperation while remaining inside the post-Brexit framework and stopping short of membership.
Read analysis →