Strategic partnership
+3 ptsThe 2025 partnership established practical routes for deeper economic cooperation.
Council of the EU · 2025-05-19 ↗← All forecasts
Britain’s European Future
A comprehensive single-market arrangement
The UK enters an arrangement providing broad participation in the EU single market across goods and services, with binding common rules and oversight.
Selected horizon
40%
Possible
Within 1 year
5%
Deadline 13 Oct 2027
Within 5 years
25%
Deadline 13 Oct 2031
Within 10 years
40%
Deadline 13 Oct 2036
Current assessment
Why 40%?
A decade provides room for a new domestic mandate and negotiated settlement, although no such path is currently agreed.
Institutional trade-offs
-4 ptsComprehensive participation would require difficult choices on rules, budget contributions and enforcement.
European Commission · 2026-10-13 ↗Community forecast
What is your estimate?
This is a judgement about whether the defined outcome will happen by the deadline—not a statement of political preference.
Model forecast
40%
Community median
—
No shared submissions yet
0% impossible100% certain
One forecast per browser and outcome. You can change it.
Stored assessments
Forecast history
This is the first stored assessment. Breenter will draw a historical line only after later snapshots exist; no backfilled history is invented.
View snapshot data
| Date | Estimate | Method |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 40% | Structured baseline v1 |
Relevant developments
Prime Minister to attend second UK–EU summit in Brussels
A scheduled leaders’ meeting creates a near-term opportunity for agreements already in negotiation. It does not signal an accession process or guarantee a substantive outcome.
Read analysis →UK and EU establish a new strategic partnership
The programme creates practical pathways for closer cooperation while remaining inside the post-Brexit framework and stopping short of membership.
Read analysis →