Second summit scheduled
-3 ptsA scheduled leaders’ summit creates a near-term route to new agreements and therefore weighs against an unchanged relationship.
UK Government · 2026-10-12 ↗← All forecasts
Britain’s European Future
The UK–EU relationship remains broadly unchanged
No substantial new UK–EU institutional or economic agreement is implemented beyond the existing framework by the deadline. This is the direct counterpoint to the closer-integration outcome.
Selected horizon
30%
Unlikely
Within 1 year
65%
Deadline 13 Oct 2027
Within 5 years
30%
Deadline 13 Oct 2031
Within 10 years
20%
Deadline 13 Oct 2036
Current assessment
Why 30%?
The active cooperation programme creates several routes to a substantive agreement, reducing the likelihood that the framework remains materially unchanged.
Existing work programme
-4 ptsActive UK–EU workstreams make a completely unchanged institutional relationship less likely over time.
Council of the EU · 2025-05-19 ↗Community forecast
What is your estimate?
This is a judgement about whether the defined outcome will happen by the deadline—not a statement of political preference.
Model forecast
30%
Community median
—
No shared submissions yet
0% impossible100% certain
One forecast per browser and outcome. You can change it.
Stored assessments
Forecast history
This is the first stored assessment. Breenter will draw a historical line only after later snapshots exist; no backfilled history is invented.
View snapshot data
| Date | Estimate | Method |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 30% | Structured baseline v1 |
Relevant developments