No accession process
-1 ptsNo UK application or formal accession process is under way.
European Commission · 2026-10-13 ↗← All forecasts
Britain’s European Future
Britain formally rejoins the EU
The UK becomes an EU member state again after completing an Article 49 accession process and all required UK and EU ratification steps.
Selected horizon
0%
Remote
Within 1 year
0%
Deadline 13 Oct 2027
Within 5 years
10%
Deadline 13 Oct 2031
Within 10 years
25%
Deadline 13 Oct 2036
Current assessment
Why 0%?
No accession process is open, and the legal and political steps could not credibly be completed inside a year.
Closer official engagement
0 ptsRegular UK–EU summits make institutional cooperation easier, without amounting to a membership path.
UK Government · 2026-10-12 ↗Public opinion
0 ptsRecent equivalent referendum polling shows Rejoin ahead, but public opinion alone cannot trigger accession.
YouGov · 2026-10-08 ↗Community forecast
What is your estimate?
This is a judgement about whether the defined outcome will happen by the deadline—not a statement of political preference.
Model forecast
0%
Community median
—
No shared submissions yet
0% impossible100% certain
One forecast per browser and outcome. You can change it.
Stored assessments
Forecast history
This is the first stored assessment. Breenter will draw a historical line only after later snapshots exist; no backfilled history is invented.
View snapshot data
| Date | Estimate | Method |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | 0% | Structured baseline v1 |
Relevant developments