Britain’s European Future

Britain formally rejoins the EU

The UK becomes an EU member state again after completing an Article 49 accession process and all required UK and EU ratification steps.

Selected horizon

10%

Remote

Current assessment

Why 10%?

A political shift could begin an accession debate, but application, negotiation and unanimous ratification remain major barriers.

-3 pts

No UK application or formal accession process is under way.

+2 pts

Regular UK–EU summits make institutional cooperation easier, without amounting to a membership path.

+2 pts

Recent equivalent referendum polling shows Rejoin ahead, but public opinion alone cannot trigger accession.

Community forecast

This is a judgement about whether the defined outcome will happen by the deadline—not a statement of political preference.

Model forecast

10%

Community median

—

No shared submissions yet

Your estimate: 50%

0% impossible100% certain

One forecast per browser and outcome. You can change it.

Stored assessments

This is the first stored assessment. Breenter will draw a historical line only after later snapshots exist; no backfilled history is invented.

View snapshot data

Date	Estimate	Method
2026-10-13	10%	Structured baseline v1

Relevant developments